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Overconfidence and optimism in the oil industry: surfacing systematic biases and distortions in probabilistic practice
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 80th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2018 Workshop Programme, Jun 2018, cp-556-00072
- ISBN: 978-94-6282-257-3
Abstract
In order to hold a meaningful discussion on the accuracy, or otherwise, of our probabilistic assessments, it is necessary to have a meaningful sense of what constitutes an accurate assessment. Pragmatically, this is equivalent to understanding how we can validate probabilistic statements regarding events against their outcomes.