1887

Abstract

Summary

In this study, Bayesian probability method applied using the extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences to estimate the earthquake hazard in and around the Marmara Sea, (western NAFZ). Basic parameters (prior estimates) for computing the Bayesian prior estimates of the seismicity were determined as the slip rate, magnitude, seismic moment and earthquake recurrence rate. After that, parameters were updated (posterior) in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical estimates of seismicity in and around the Marmara Sea. The Sakarya-Düzce (Karadere-Düzce Basins) zone and Tekirdağ-Merkez-Kumburgaz-Çınarcık Basins (Marmara Sea) zone estimated high seismicity in next years. Six different seismogenic source zones in the Marmara Sea were estimated probabilities of exceedance of earthquake with 6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5 and 8.5 upper bound magnitudes. We selected time period of T=5, 20 and 100 years and were determined coefficients of variation (v=0.1, 0.25 and 1.0 values). As a result of this study, The northern branch of NAFZ occurred earthquake in next years. The Sakarya-Düzce and Marmara Sea have determined the most dangerous regions in next 100-year.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201702581
2017-11-05
2024-03-28
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. Barka, A.A.
    , (1992) The North Anatolian fault zone. Annales Tectonicae, Spec. Iss.VI, 164–195.
    [Google Scholar]
  2. Barka, A.A. et al.
    , (2002)The surface rupture and slip distribution of the 17 August 1999 Izmit Earthquake (M7.4), North Anatolian Fault. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.92(1), 43–60.
    [Google Scholar]
  3. BenjaminJR
    (1968) Probabilistic models for seismic force design. J Struct Div ASCE94(ST5): 1175–1196.
    [Google Scholar]
  4. Benjamin, J.R., Cornell, C.A.
    , (1970) Probability, statistics and decision for civil engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York.
    [Google Scholar]
  5. Campbell, K.W.
    , (1977) The use of seismotectonics in the Bayesian estimation of seismic risk, School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of California, Los Angeles, Report UCLA-ENG–7744.
    [Google Scholar]
  6. , (1982) Bayesian-analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences. Part 1. Probabilistic hazard model. Bull Seismol Soc Am72(5): 1689–1705.
    [Google Scholar]
  7. , (1983) Bayesian-analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences. Part 2. Application to the San Jacinto fault zone of southern California. Bull Seismol Soc Am73(4): 1099–1115.
    [Google Scholar]
  8. Galanis, O.C., Tapanos, T.M., Papadopoulos, G.A., Kiratzi, A.A.
    , (2002) Bayesian extreme values distribution for seismicity parameters assessment in South America. J Balk Geophys Soc5: 77–86.
    [Google Scholar]
  9. Ketin, I.
    , (1948) Über die tektonisch-mechanischen Folgerungen aus den großen anatolischen Erdbeben des letzten Dezenniums. Geol. Rundsch.36, 77–83.
    [Google Scholar]
  10. Mortgat, C.P., Shah, H.C.
    , (1979) A Bayesian model for seismic hazard mapping. Bull Seismol Soc Am69: 1237–1251.
    [Google Scholar]
  11. McClusky, S., et al.
    , (2000) Global positioning system constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus. J. Geophys. Res.105(B3), 5695–5719. 10.1029/1999JB900351.
    https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JB900351 [Google Scholar]
  12. Parsons, T., et al.
    , (2000) Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: an interaction-based probability calculation. Science288, 661–665.
    [Google Scholar]
  13. Reilinger, R., Toksoz, N., McClusky, S., Barka, A.A.
    , (2000) 1999 Izmit, Turkey, earthquake was no surprise. GSA Today10(1), 1.6.
    [Google Scholar]
  14. Reilinger, R., et al.
    , (2006) GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa– Arabia–Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions. J. Geophys. Res.111, B05411. 10.1029/2005JB004051.
    https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004051 [Google Scholar]
  15. Stavrakakis, G.N., Drakopoulos, J.
    , (1995) Bayesian probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Greece and surrounding areas. Pure Appl Geophys144(2): 307–319.
    [Google Scholar]
  16. Stein, R.S., Barka, A.A., Dieterich, J.H.
    , (1997) Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophys. J. Int.128, 594–604.
    [Google Scholar]
http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201702581
Loading
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201702581
Loading

Data & Media loading...

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error