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Analogue play statistics for improved pre-drill risking: North Sea case study
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 80th EAGE Conference & Exhibition 2018 Workshop Programme, Jun 2018, cp-556-00073
- ISBN: 978-94-6282-257-3
Abstract
There is evidence that the industry is systematically over-estimating the commercial chance of success (CoCS) and volume especially in high risk plays. The bias in commercial risking and pre-drill volume estimation is not a new phenomenon and persists today. Analogue play statistics can help address potential bias by providing objective calibration and sense-checking of success rates and discovery sizes.