Long-term modeling of mudflow processes activation within Carpathian region

The purpose of the study is to verify already established and to identify new patterns in the factor influence of meteorological parameters and solar activity (as a trigger factor) on the mudflow activity. On the way of realization of the set goal the following tasks were solved: addition to the database of the temporal information; modeling of series of dynamics and their analysis using correlation, auto and cross correlation analyzes. In the extrapolation of the complex index of long standing mudflow activity (CIMA) was taking into account new regularities. Correlation and cross-correlation analysis revealed the logical effect of parameters of air temperature and precipitation on mudflow activation in certain solar cycles. Correlation coefficients for meteostation Rakhiv reached their peak values in the years of recorded mudflow activity. It was observed the complex interaction of meteoparameters and for the values of other meteorological stations, indicating the predominance of similar air masses and the presence of the effect of total exposure. Such influence is crucial for the development and intensification of mudflow processes in potential areas of the eastern and southeast mudflow hazard areas of the Carpathians.