Analysing exploration uncertainties by tight integration of seismic and hydrocarbon migration modelling

High success rates in the exploration for oil and gas can be achieved by incorporating best practice strategies in estimating the geological uncertainties from seismic data and geological models. A tight coupling of the seismic information and hydrocarbon migration modelling may allow for a consistent handling of uncertainties throughout the analysis. Seismic uncertainties include velocities used for depth conversion, the positioning of structural interpretations including faults, and assigning flow properties from seismic attributes. The necessary output from the seismic uncertainty analysis could be provided as uncertainty fields that may be used as input to hydrocarbon migration modelling.

The nonlinearity of the hydrocarbon migration process, including flow-path selection and trap phase filtering, frequently requires that local uncertainties are addressed in more detail. These uncertainties may require high-resolution seismic analyses in order to be further resolved. The structural interpretation is of particular importance to accumulation uncertainties, and fault juxtaposition and carrier dip direction uncertainty estimations can improve phase prediction estimates in exploration prospects. It is suggested that an improved best practice for exploration for oil and gas should include a tight coupling of the handling of uncertainties from seismic data in hydrocarbon migration modelling.