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- Volume 16, Issue 3, 1998
First Break - Volume 16, Issue 3, 1998
Volume 16, Issue 3, 1998
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Report suggests end of $16 barrel may be in sight
Wood Mackenzie is offering a more sanguine view of the likely level of oil price through 1998. First Break explains why. Everyone is being too pessimistic about the price of oil for this year, according to energy analyst Wood Mackenzie. It forecasts that a recovery will push the price of Brent crude oil up from its current depressed level of below $16 per barrel to around $19. Wood Mackenzie believes that current market price expectations overstate the weakness in the fundamentals of global oil supply/demand balance for 1998. Among other things, it argues that the demand weakness expected as a result of the Far East financial crisis and increased OPEC oil output will be less significant than anticipated for world oil markets. For much of 1997 there was little to suggest that the oil price fundamentalswere any less strong than in 1996. Brent crude oil averaged $19.31 per barrel last year following an average of $20.82 per barrel in 1996. Global oil demand growth was buoyant for most of last year even allowing for the slowdown in the Far East economics. Oil stocks had fallen to record lows in 1996 and remained that way in early 1997. Planned increased in non-OPEC oil supplies fell short of expectations in provinces such as the West of Shetland. It was also found that the partial return of Iraq oil exports did not depress prices in 1997, nor did the extra 2 million b/d from OPEC members over and above the 25 million b/d quota set in 1993. The rapid change in sentiment at the end of 1997 resulted from a combination of factors - escalating fears about the Far East economies, OPECís decision to raise its production quotas from 25 to 27.5 million b/d, the Iraq factor and the mildness of the winter weather in the northern hemisphere. Wood Mackenzie says that the perception of a considerable surplus of supply over demand may be misplaced and that there is potential for oil price recovery later in the year. One reason is that for most of the 1990s there was a tendency to underestimate the flow of oil from non-OPEC resources due to new techniques such as 3D seismic and horizontal drilling plus the industry focus on cost reductions and more favourable regulatory and taxation regimes.
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Jack is a master of trade in technology
By A. McBarnetCatching Ian Jack for a conversation in his office at BP Exploration in Sunbury, outside London is something of an achievement. He has become something of an ambassador-at-large for the geoscience industry and that means he is never in one place for very long. Andrew McBarnet reports. Ian Jack seems surprised when you suggest he's difficult to pin down, but then he lists his recent itinerary. In the month or so before Christmas he travelled to Houston twice as well as separate trips to Dallas and Denver. In the month following our meeting, he was due in Norway, Egypt, Australia and Caracas. One reason for the hectic travel programme is his current assignment for the SEG. He was invited to present the very first SEG Distinguished Instructor Short Course (DISC). SEG says it created this annual event at an initial cost of $180 000 to offer geoscientists updates on significant new and emerging technologies from world class educators. Something of an accolade, then, for Jack to be batting first. He is committed to giving his course entitled 'Time-Lapse Seismic in Reservoir Management' in 16 locations worldwide, co-sponsored by the EAGE outside the Western Hemisphere. The course which comes with an impressively produced book of notes, is intended to have wide appeal providing an overview of state-of-the-art 'time-lapse seismic' with the idea of enabling participants to make decisions using the technology.
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Drilling rig shortage to frustrate NW Europe exploration
A total of 163 exploration and appraisal (E&A) wells are expected to be drilled in Northwest Europe, according to an annual survey of oil company intentions by energy analyst Wood Mackenzie. Although this represents a 4% decrease from the 166 wells drilled in the area last year, demand for semi-submersible drilling rigs for both E&A and development drilling is expected to continue outstripping supply.
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Environmental issue could be exploration industry's worst nightmare
The environment may turn out to be a bigger concern for the oil industry than any fear of oil supplies drying up. That was the view expressed by Jay Paul Wagner, senior environmental consultant, Petroconsultants, at an open forum organized last month in London by the EAME Chapter of the International Association of Geophysical Contractors to discuss 'Seismic and the Environment.' Wagner's presentation encapsulated what the meeting perceived was a major dilemma for the industry, namely that it had done a lot to clean up its act but was under greater pressure than ever on environmental issues. Wagner confirmed that there was growing environmental activism, not just confined to the Greenpeace campaigns against exploration in the Atlantic Frontier, Greece and Waddensee (The Netherlands). There had been national government organisation (NGO) protests in Ecuador, Columbia and Venezuela.
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Seismic characterization of Rotliegend reservoirs: from bright spots to stochastic simulation
Authors C. Hellmich and H. TrappeA number of investigations within the North German Basin have shown the impact of 3D seismic on reliable reservoir characterization (Budny 1991; Hartung & Schwartz 1993; Trappe et al. 1996; among others). In general reservoir parameters like porosity or porosity thickness are linked to seismic attributes derived from the 3D seismic data. For Rotliegend reservoir characterization the seismic amplitude and acoustic impedance attributes are most commonly chosen. This study uses geostatistical methods to combine reservoir parameters (porosity, porosity thickness) and seismic attributes (e.g. amplitude, impedance, etc.) (Doyen 1988, Schultz et al. 1994). To integrate all information the following procedure was applied: . Analysis of seismic attributes (amplitude, frequency, impedance, etc.) and reservoir parameters (porosity, porosity thickness) and their crosscorrelation. . Processing of input data (declustering, normal distribution transformation, resampling, smoothing) and checking for trueness of parameter distributions. . Geostatistical analysis and variogram modelling of seismic attributes and reservoir parameters. . Kriging of the reservoir parameters (wells only). Cokriging of seismic and well information. . Stochastic simulation to investigate alternatives and extreme realizations. The paper will show that the above steps lead to a detailed quantitative description of pore volume in the producing units. A new reserve estimation can now be used for optimizing the economic output. From a reservoir engineering point the distribution of the reservoir parameters is of great importance. The distribution of porosity and other parameters is needed for dynamic simulations of the reservoir. This can help to define flow barriers and areas that are poorly reached by the wells. The reservoirs of interest are Rotliegend sandstones within the North German Basin (Fig. 1) at depths of 4500±5000 m. The study area is covered by about 2500 km2 of 3D seismic. Quite a few wells have been drilled in the area. For the study about 65 wells have been selected that have tested the reservoir.
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Volumes & issues
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Volume 42 (2024)
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Volume 41 (2023)
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Volume 40 (2022)
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Volume 39 (2021)
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Volume 38 (2020)
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Volume 37 (2019)
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Volume 36 (2018)
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Volume 35 (2017)
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Volume 34 (2016)
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Volume 33 (2015)
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Volume 32 (2014)
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Volume 31 (2013)
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Volume 30 (2012)
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Volume 29 (2011)
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Volume 28 (2010)
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Volume 27 (2009)
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Volume 26 (2008)
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Volume 25 (2007)
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Volume 24 (2006)
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Volume 23 (2005)
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Volume 22 (2004)
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Volume 21 (2003)
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Volume 20 (2002)
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Volume 19 (2001)
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Volume 18 (2000)
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Volume 17 (1999)
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Volume 16 (1998)
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Volume 15 (1997)
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Volume 14 (1996)
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Volume 13 (1995)
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Volume 12 (1994)
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Volume 11 (1993)
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Volume 10 (1992)
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Volume 9 (1991)
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Volume 8 (1990)
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Volume 7 (1989)
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Volume 6 (1988)
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Volume 5 (1987)
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Volume 4 (1986)
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Volume 3 (1985)
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Volume 2 (1984)
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Volume 1 (1983)