Managing Portfolios of Interdependent Prospects – An Application to Predicting Future Gas Discoveries in the Netherlands

E031 Managing portfolios of interdependent prospects: an application to predict future gas discoveries in the Netherlands Abstract 1 Prospect interdependencies if present and marked by a postitive correlation result in a higher volatility of the portfolio compared to a portfolio with independent prospects. The volatility offers options for companies to increase the expected monetary value (EMV) of the exploration portfolio or any group of interdependent prospects. However the same volatility adds uncertainty to the governments future reserves. In order to investigate these effects on the Netherlands Gas portfolio a methodology has been developed for modelling the effects of dependencies. The