Aftershock probability evaluation for recent Turkey earthquakes based on Gutenberg-Richter and Modified Omori Formulae

A statistical model of aftershock occurrence probability based on the combination of Gutenberg-Richter and modified Omori formulae is used in this study in order to predict how many large aftershocks should follow small main shocks and in order to evaluate aftershock probability that a randomly chosen earthquake is greater than or equal to a certain magnitude of aftershock. For this purpose, we made an application using eleven aftershock sequences in which occurred Turkey between 2003 and 2005.