L-33 A NEW STRATEGY FOR CHARACTERISING UNCERTAINTIES IN THERMAL HISTORY MODELLING FOR HYDROCARBON GENERATION C. FERRERO and K. GALLAGHER Imperial College London University TH Huxley School of Environment Earth Science and Engineering London SW7 2BP UK 1 Summary Most companies use a risking function that estimates the probability of discovery by evaluating a number of parameters considered as being essential for the accumulation of hydrocarbons. A typical form of this function is: P(discovery) = P(Source) x P(Trap) x P(Reservoir) x P(Seal) x P(Timing) The quantification of these respective probabilities is paramount for a proper risking of the prospect to be


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