P624 CHARACTERIZATION AND PRODUCTION FORECASTING OF SHOREFACE RESERVOIRS THROUGH PROCESS-BASED MODELLING C.R.GEEL Introduction 1 Assessment of the uncertainty in production forecasting of an existing oil field is usually done by performing reservoir simulations of a number of stochastic realizations. The parameters of these realizations vary around base case values that are obtained by matching the reservoir simulator output to the field’s production history. This approach has been extensively studied and documented in the last 15 years (see e.g. Lia et al 1997). There are some problems with this approach however. Practically no commercially available stochastic modelling software is able to


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