A Recipe to Balance ‘Black Box’ and Deterministic Methods When Designing Geological Models

This paper presents and discusses an experience based working approach and philosophy for geological modelling. The aim<br>is to encourage a discussion on how to best balance and synergize powerful modelling technologies available today with<br>bright thinking of scientists working for the petroleum industry. This method consists of (1) proper model framing in order to<br>meet business objectives, (2) analysis of a suitable modelling technique to enable effective delivery of results, (3) in-depth<br>uncertainty analysis through a dissection of the subsurface into its individual components, (4) selection of appropriate range<br>of subsurface scenarios which cover uncertainties and risks (5) a variety of manipulative tools which can help to implement<br>subsurface concepts which cannot easily be addressed with geostatistics and (6) a threefold tactic (“self-criticism” –<br>“supervision” – “peer review”) to facilitate quality control.