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Maximum Amplitude Of Solar Cycles
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, 7th International Congress of the Brazilian Geophysical Society, Oct 2001, cp-217-00355
Abstract
To predict solar cycles we consider the predictor<br>technique which is very interesting for studies of<br>the relationship between Sun and Earth. This<br>method is based on correlations between<br>phenomena observed on the Sun or originating<br>from the Sun using geomagnetic disturbance<br>indices which are indicative of solar phenomena.<br>The solar and the geomagnetic activities are<br>measured by sunspot numbers and the AA*<br>index. The above mentioned data are compiled<br>for 1868 to 2000 (solar cycles 9 to 22).<br>We also use the predictor technique to reobtain<br>the number of storms happened during the solar<br>cycles 4 to 11. This information is considered to<br>have the spectrum of periodicities(Fig.1). Once<br>established, the series can be extrapolated to<br>generate a prediction of future cycles.<br>The previous method indicates that the current<br>solar cycle ( N=23) would have a peak value of<br>137 ± 65. This result agrees with prior results.