The Monte Carlo Myth, Or Why A Reservoir Isn’t A Roulette Wheel

Investigations into reservoir uncertainty are becoming more commonplace, not just into reserves or<br>static uncertainty but also into the behavioural uncertainty associated with the flow characteristics of the<br>reservoir. Unfortunately many of these investigations rely on two assumptions; 1) that the input property<br>distributions can be defined by normal distributions and 2) that Monte Carlo methods are applicable for the<br>analysis of multivariate relationships (particularly those of spatial properties). These two assumptions have<br>long been abandoned in other areas of uncertainty modeling and risk assessment, most noticeably in financial<br>engineering.