Investigation of seismcity of the Marmara region with statistical approaches

Earthquake prediction researches keep an important place among the studies about the minimizing of earthquake damages. Great earthquakes in a characteristic region where is defined as seismogenic source take place recursively, but the time interval among these events varies from a seismogenic source to another. These changes do not only depend on a ratio of plate motions. Rupture length along the strike, the downdip width and the dip of the plate boundary are also effective factors on earthquake recurrence intervals. If a certain pattern is identified concerning changes in seismic activity in the hypocentral region after a large earthquake and leading up to the next large earthquake, an examination of the course of seismic activity will provide a lead to long-term forecasting of the occurrence of the next large earthquake. In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes occurred in the Marmara Region, this region limited with the coordinates 39°-42°K, 25°-32° has been separated into six seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological and geomorphological criteria. Poisson and exponential distribution methods have been applied for each source and recurrence times and seismic risk of earthquakes have been determined in the period of one hundred years.