Unconventional Resources Uncertainties: Everywhere Is Not The Same!

Petronas foray into unconventional resources started with the Gladstone CBM project in Australia in 2006. Since then various unconventional assets comprising of oil sands, shale gas and coal bed methane have been evaluated for technical and commercial potential. Despite similar methodologies used when assessing unconventional resources, they possess a high range of variability and uncertainty in its reservoir properties. This is debunking popular myth that “everywhere is the same”. Also controversial is the way productivity and resource is defined, which needs to be understood thoroughly to determine the value of the asset and fulfill pertinent investment criteria. Case studies of unconventional resources evaluation in are shared to illustrate the issues outlined. The uncertainty in unconventional play ranges from as early stage of resource estimation to the productivity of the reservoir. As seen from our case studies, these uncertainties are the interplay of regional geology, methodology adapted and operational practice.