Integration of Basin Modeling, Uncertainty Analysis, Hydrocarbon Charge Volume Assessment in Petroleum Exploration Risk Evaluation

Recent developments in hydrocarbon (HC) exploration have necessitated the strengthening and greater integration of geologic model building. Robust basin modeling requires a two-step procedure consisting of constructing reliable input frameworks that are consistent with available data and geologic interpretations and related geohistory processes and conducting basin simulation tests to explore and determine the confidence level of modeling results. Integrating structural components such as faulting and salt movement is a key element and requires their restoration through time. These restorations impact our understanding of basin development, HC migration patterns, fetch areas, as well as the assessment of potential HC volumes. The granularity or resolution of the stratigraphic input may also alter the modeled migration pattern, including the relative importance of lateral and vertical components and distance. Key modeling input parameters include the source rock distribution through time and space. This input can be developed through the integration of geochemical data with stratigraphy, paleo-bathymetric framework, and other basin specific conditions (e.g., paleolatitude). As a result, a 3-D framework of organic richness and kerogen type can be developed. The restorations and interpretations are imbedded within the basin modeling workflow and iteratively interact with the basin’s burial history modeling. This iterative approach along with the numeric simulator accomplishes the integration and optimization of the input geologic model and directly yields more realistic modeling results consistent with the basin’s specific geology. 2 IPTC 16423 Finally, in order to capture the full range of uncertainty in the petroleum system and to objectively evaluate the hydrocarbon potential and risks in the basin, a suite of simulations need to be performed using a probabilistic approach to determine the confidence level to be placed on the HC volume potential and risks in the analyzed basin.