Establishment and Application of the Multi-Peak Forecasting Model

After the development of the oil field, it is an important task to predict the production and the recoverable reserve opportunely by the production data. At present, the forecasting methods include reservoir numerical simulation, forecasting model, material balance and production decline, and so on. Of these methods, the forecasting model is a useful and effective one for entire forecasting. The famous Generalized Weng model, Weibull model, Rayleigh model, HCZ model, Hubbert model, Lognormal distribution model are major forecasting models. But these models are all single peak development model, they can’t get the reliable results for the bi-peak and multi-peak development model. In this paper a generalized single peak forecasting model and its derived models were established. From the generalized single peak forecasting model, we can derive some famous forecasting models, such as Generalized Weng model, Weibull model, Rayleigh model, Arps Exponential Decline model, Modern model, Modern model, and so on. Subsequently, a multiple peak forecasting model was proposed based on the generalized single peak forecasting model, by which the multipeak model production, cumulative production and recoverable reserve can be obtained. Furthermore, the resolution method of multi-peak forecasting model parameters was also introduced by nonlinear automatic matching solving techniques. According to the practical application for some oil fields, both generalized single peak forecasting model and multiple peak forecasting model are all confirmed to be practical and effective.