The Development of a New Methodology to Reduce Uncertainty in Implementing a New EOR Project

A methodology for risk analysis of EOR projects is developed based on giving to their three standard phases elements from integrated reservoir management and from the methodology of scientific research. Phase 1 starts with the systematic analysis of the variety of factors categorized by its financial side, probabilistic entity features and whether or not they correspond to the petroleum engineering system. For all variables, a key point in Phase 2 is the full examination of their modalities of relationship with a contingency table. They are introduced as controls of the mathematical model, beyond the scope of plain correlations. To decrease uncertainty for a given variable displaying distributions with a similar goodness of fit, is selected the one with the least Coefficient of Variation. For time dependent variables is best the selection of two-dimensional distributions instead of one-dimensional ones, as shown by results of applying the criteria to evaluate information. Although the method guidelines are of general application for the risk analysis, the nature of each EOR project involves particular aspects to consider under their own terms. A chemical type of EOR project at the BCF illustrates the general methodology proposed.