In 2010, a risk analysis taking into account both uncertainties in reservoir parameters and at the same time accounting for real time pore pressure measurements during a drilling operation on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS), was completed. The plan was to drill through seven reservoirs, each independent of each other with a vast amount of uncertainties in the pore and fracturing pressure due to years of injection and production. The risk analysis was first made as an input to the drill plan, using best reservoir parameters available as well as expert judgments. Simulations were performed within a Monte Carlo (MC) framework. Results like for instance probabilities for fracturing and kick for drilling through the next reservoir(s) or tripping out, as well as an optimum mud weight for reducing risk, were obtained. The analysis was updated real time as the pore pressures were logged during the drilling phase, providing the best possible risk picture and giving the decision takers a possibility to update the drill plan before drilling through the next reservoirs. This paper describes how the main characteristics of the reservoirs were modeled and how the risk analyses were performed. Simulations obtained, both before and during the drilling operations, are presented. Results like the probabilities of fracturing and kicks as a function of reservoir parameters and number of reservoirs drilled, as well as optimum mud weight for risk reduction, are emphasized.


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