BlowFlow - Next Generation Software for Calculating Blowout Rates

A blowout is known to be the most severe event that can happen during explortation of petroleum resources. Oil-spill preparedness is important in general, particularly in the arctic region where uncertainties about consequences are high and contingency planning for major accidents requires extra attention. Calculation of blowout rates and durations from potential blowouts is an important part of environmental risk management, both in the planning phase of a well and during otherwell activities. BlowFlow is a software tool that has been developed for risk based evaluation of blowout scenarios in order to quantify blowout flow rates, volumes and durations. The results can be used as input to Environmental Risk Analysis, to dimension the emergency preparedness organization and identify both probability and consequence measures in the oil-spill preparedness planning. BlowFlow is meant as a cross-disciplinary tool for communication between petroleum, reservoir, drilling and HSE engineers. The basic design has been inspired by the guidelines given in [1]. Based on a fixed definition of potential blowout scenarios, BlowFlow provides probability distributions of potential blowout rates, durations and volumes for that can be used as input for the Environmental Risk Analysis. Since there are large uncertainties involved at the stage when such an analysis is performed, a stochastic modeling approach is used, i.e. Monte Carlo simulations and spline interpolations, based on multi-discipline expert input.