Integrated Analysis of Reservoir Model Uncertainty and Predictability Using Production and Time-lapse Seismic Data

In this study we discuss the impact of different objective functions to match different types of data, including both production and time-lapse seismic data, on the uncertainty estimation and predictability of reservoir models. We match synthetic production data over a five year history and time-lapse seismic data, in the form of maps of water saturation change after two and five years, by estimating permeability models, their uncertainties and predictability. We compare optimal solutions found with different objective functions using multiple very fast simulated annealing (MVFSA). The results demonstrate that quantitative integration of production data and maps of water saturation change reduces model uncertainty, improves model predictability and shows superior performance than using either type of data alone.