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Abstract

Assessing uncertainties is a key step towards achieving clarity in decision-making. The assessment of relevant and potentially material uncertainties in a decision context requires a structured approach to characterize the full uncertainty in the situation, avoid cognitive and motivational biases, and ensure a high-quality analysis overall. I discuss the use of relevance diagrams and influence diagrams for deconstructing the uncertainty in a decision situation and facilitating the assessment of each uncertain parameter using a proven five-step process. The method is applied to characterize the uncertainty in a liquefaction capacity investment decision in North America (illustrative case study).

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/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.20131270
2013-06-10
2021-12-05
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http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.20131270
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