Reservoir modelling and production forecasting are challenging as we are trying to describe the whole reservoir and predict the dynamic behaviour of all the wells based on a limited amount of measurements. Taking advantage of all the data available at various scales, and understanding the uncertainties in the reservoir model and the flow simulations, become then important to allow for robust development and operation for a field. In a dynamic uncertainty analysis, an accurate representation of the uncertainties in the reservoir model is preferred, and several realisations that are all probable within the uncertainty span should be considered. An integrated and automated modelling workflow that contains the whole modelling chain from depth conversion to flow simulation is then very useful. This has been demonstrated on a field development case from deep-water Gulf of Mexico. The uncertainties related to compartmentalisation are believed to be among the most important factors contributing to the total uncertainty in the in-place volumes and the recovery factor for this field. Thus fault uncertainties are incorporated into the reservoir model and their impact on the fluid flow are evaluated. An improved uncertainty estimate for the reserves is then achieved, which contributes to reduce the investment risk.


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