f Risking Accumulations and Sealing in Petroleum Systems Modeling - A Bayesian Approach

Modeling the accumulation and loss of hydrocarbons in traps is one of the prirnary tasks in Petroleum Systems Modeling. Hydrocarbon column heights and accumulation sizes are in most cases determined by the physical properties of the top seals which can also obviously include faults and facies boundaries. The sealing capacity is usually quantified with capillary pressure values, and hydrocarbon break-through and loss from an accumulation occurs when the density contrast between the hydrocarbons and water times column height exceeds the capillary pressure. Accurate quantitative knowledge of the sealing capillary pressure is therefore required. Unfortunately, experimental values or theories for the derivation of capillary values from interfacial tensions, fluid properties and pore geometry are seldom available with the required degree of accuracy, especially as effective or bulk values are required.