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Quantification of Uncertainty Reduction by Conditioning to Dynamic Production Data
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, ECMOR VI - 6th European Conference on the Mathematics of Oil Recovery, Sep 1998, cp-102-00046
- ISBN: 978-94-6282-121-7
Abstract
Making decisions in reservoir management requires a method for quantifying uncertainty. In reservoir volumetrics, expectation curves for quantifying reservoir properties such as gross rock volume, average porosity, are weIl accepted. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainty in average reservoir properties are propagated to uncertainty in hydrocarbons initially in place, and eventually to uncertainty in ultimate recovery.