f Risk Analysis in Basin Modelling - Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Frontier Exploration

As basin modelling techniques becomes used routinely in hydrocarbon exploration, the uncertainty and sensitivity associated with basin modelling become vitel issues in order to avoid decision making based on uncertain outputs. When data availability decreases, the uncertainty involved will increase and so will the exploration risk. It is therefore essential to know the uncertainty and associated risk when applying basin modelling techniques to individual basins. For a given model it is necessary to examine how the model results are influenced by the uncertainty in model assumptions, model parameters, and of errors in, and finite sampling of, the input data.