f Uncertainty in present and past thermal structure as a source of risk in exploration

An important application of thermal reconstruction in exploration is evaluation of the source rock maturation history for the assessment of the prospective potential of nearby structures. Source rocks are buried in depressions which usually have not been drilled. This raises the problem of extrapolation of the thermal model calibrated on well data into the undrilled kitchen area. It is the purpose of this paper to discuss some important sources of temperature uncertainties which arise. Furthermore, we discuss a simple statistical model of temperature history uncertainty.