Fluid injection into the subsurface is performed for a variety of reasons, such as hydraulic fracturing, and waste storage. It is well established that fluid injection can trigger seismic activity of sufficient magnitude to be felt by local populations. The industry wishes to avoid such events. We develop a statistical model to forecast the largest event that might be induced by a given injection operation. The model is continuously updated as microseismic data is processed in real time. We use this model in a prospective sense, updating our forecasts through the injection period. We apply our model to two case studies: a hydraulic fracture stimulation in a tight gas reservoir; and at the In Salah CCS project, Algeria. In both cases, our model is capable of forecasting the largest event prior to its occurrence, providing an early-warning for the operator.


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