Analysis of the Uncertainties and Risks of the Geological Model Based on the 3D Seismic Data

The main purpose is to identify the most sensitive parameters for detecting the distribution’s probability of target parameters. The basis for the search is the uncertainties, which is getting from the interpretation of seismic data. The presented method of integrated search tools and its uncertainty estimates based primarily on the seismic data as the primary information which is loaded to the geological model. It is possible to calibrate the 3D-seismic data with significant error of interpretation on the well logging data, which is more "trustworthy" because it is measured by direct methods, but that also have some uncertainty in the determination of the boundary (transition) values. Based on cross-validation we can not only control the methods quality, but also assess the degree of reduction of uncertainty in the forecast. Thus, uncertainty analysis provides the final user the choice of the decision either it is possible to increase scrutiny and take more risks or increase profitability and sacrifice study.