Aggregation of Oil and Gas Resource Estimates of Local Objects under Geologic Risk

Methods of aggregation of resources' probable estimates of local objects under geological risk are considered in this work. The probable estimates of resouces of local objects are taking into consideration the the influence of two types of factors defining uncertainty of these estimates: uncertain geological model of the trap, received under the deficit of initial information and the unindentified productivity of the trap at the moment of the estimation of resources. Two types of probable estimates of resources are received: without geological risk (probable estimates of resouces in suboil) and with the action of two indicated types of factors - probable estimates of resources under geological risk. It was noted that the accounting of the geological risk has been identified the specific character of methodology of aggregation of probable estimates of trap's resources.Analytic method of aggregation of probable estimates of resources under geological risk was developed. Design formulas and demonstration example were made. The method is useful for the receiving of probable estimates of resources of prospects consisting of several traps.