The questions of probability character of exploration process for oil and gas fields are considered. It is shown that risks and uncertainties are an integral property of exploration. Therefore, under the conditions of market economics, an analysis and the probability estimation of risk and trustworthiness of decisions taken in preparing and developing the hydrocarbon resource base is of great importance. Such estimation can be received on the basis of a geological-mathematical model of probabilistic growing oil and gas reserves. The proposed approach of probability estimating the geological risks and uncertainties in preparing and developing oil and gas reserves is approved in a promising oil-gas area


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