Asset Lifecycle OPEX Modelling with Montecarlo Simulation to Reduce Uncertainties and to Improve Field Exploitation

Be cost effective at early stages of field development and during mature production it is one of the most critical steps for improving risk and uncertainties management and optimization of field exploitation during the asset lifecycle. This study shows the methodology adopted by EniTunisia to evaluate the operating expenditures (OPEX) for development projects and producing assets. This methodology adopts the concept of activity based cost (ABC) and Monte Carlo simulations to improve OPEX estimates, to influence the design optimising costs, and to reduce uncertainties throughout the exploration and production (E&P) phases from evaluation phase through mature operations up to decommissioning. This methodology has been successfully applied for both development projects and mature production. In particular when used during design phases it provides an improved OPEX cost estimates compared to percentage of CAPEX methods, which enables project and operations teams to better evaluate the feasibility and operability of a project. In addition a risk analysis will be carried out for the cost model in order to mitigate the risks and uncertainties associated with the different assumptions.