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Dynamic and Statistical Models of the Reserves Estimation
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, EAGE International Conference on Petroleum Geology and Hydrocarbon Potential of Caspian and Black Sea Regions, Oct 2008, cp-91-00046
- ISBN: 978-90-73781-58-0
Abstract
Development of oil-gas field reserves is the continuous process including on various exploration and development stages. Thus, each stage is characterized by a various field investigations, so that is defined the method of calculation and is mirrored on reliability of it estimation. The essential mismatch between listed STOIP and actual reserves volumes was revealed in result of comparative analysis of number of exploitation objects during development. So if for some exploitation objects in accordance to official documentation its reserves is completed, but production is continued even, in other cases realization possibilities of some exploitation objects are quite doubtful. Traditional volumetric or other methods of reserves calculation give a point estimated average reserves in the form of one number which does not contain the information about its distribution by whole reservoir volume. Obviously, in such situation it is experienced to estimate reservoir characteristics and geological reserves with application of the new probable-statistical methods and represented not only its absolute volume, but also its probabilistic variations. This is exclusively important for estimation of economical risk of field development. In accordance to above mentioned re-estimation of recoverable reserves is very important issue for long term developed fields.