Basin modelling results can be very sensitive to (paleo-)temperature uncertainties. For frontier basins, in particular for deep water settings, the thermal signature of the basin is poorly constrained, as data from wells are lacking. This may lead to wrong heat flow assumptions if these are extrapolated from the shallow offshore or onshore. Furthermore large uncertainties can exist when dealing with constructing paleo-heat flow. The potential errors in spatial and temporal extrapolations are especially large in settings with strong spatial and temporal variations in tectonic regime. This is in particular true for the Mediterranean and North Africa. Heat flow modeling can be improved considerably through numerically modeling lithospheric processes underlying basin deformation. For this purpose we have developed a probabilistic tool which is capable of calculating tectonic heat flows calibrated to observed data and which can be used as input for maturation modelling. For various basin settings we will show the effect of adopting tectonic heat flows for improving spatial and temporal constraints on the temperature and maturation history in deep water exploration settings. Case studies include the Morrocan Atlantic margin and the Valencia Through (Spain).


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