Quantifying the Impact of Fault Networks on Induced Seismicity Potential - Geomechanical Tools to Support Social License

A workflow is demonstrated which uses numerical modeling to mechanically quantify the induced seismic potential of a given area as a function of differential stress and shear components. With properly constrained and conditioned geologic and geophysical inputs, a representative fracture model may be simulated to deliver geomechanical outputs which correlate well with seismicity where such information is available. Near Oklahoma City, fault data from recent Oklahoma Geologic Survey publications is simulated using realistic regional stress and rock properties which produce a geomechanical proxy map that clearly outlines regions of high and low stress/shear which demonstrate similar trends to seismicity. This same workflow is applied to the largescale regional faults collected into GIS data by the Alberta Geological Survey. When simulated using realistic regional conditions, certain areas and geometries of fault blocks result in areas of escalated stress/shear even away from the large faults bounding the blocks. The ability of the workflow to realistically capture the mechanical effect of faults at a regional scales, and simulate the interaction of several faults within an evolving stress environment, provides a quantitative measure of the mechanical potential for high pressure injection wells to trigger a large seismic event in a given area.