Covering Geological Uncertainty in Polymer Injection Projects Using Multidimensional Scaling

Assessing uncertainties is common practice in the lifecycle of any E & P project. Whether during the appraisal or development stages of a project, reducing risk is important to minimize capital exposure and maximize project value. In the oil and gas industry, decisions are often taken based on limited, poor quality, and ambiguous data (limited number of wells & core, poor quality seismic etc.). This ultimately means any production forecasts generated are made from a fundamentally uncertain subsurface interpretation, and quite often, these forecasts (and decisions) are made using a single interpretation. This forecast and decision making process could be improved through a more robust forecasting methodology which incorporates the key uncertainties.

We propose a modern, integrated workflow to better assess and incorporate uncertainties within the modelling process. Instead of ranking or even rejecting models based on independent static measures, dynamic measures such as tracers (including pseudo-tracers) and liquid rates are used. This approach helps retain the diversity of interpretations and provides a better understanding of the interaction and importance of geology on fluid flow and is used for forecasting and decision making under uncertainty.