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Monte Carlo-based Framework for Quantification and Updating of Geological Model Uncertainty with Borehole Data
- Publisher: European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers
- Source: Conference Proceedings, Petroleum Geostatistics 2019, Sep 2019, Volume 2019, p.1 - 5
Abstract
Uncertainty quantification is of importance for reservoir appraisals. In this work, we provide an automated method for uncertainty quantification of geological model using well borehole data for the reservoir appraisal. In our method, when new wells are drilled, multiple components of the geological model are updated jointly and automatically by means of a sequential decomposition following geological rules. During updating, we extend the direct forecasting method to perform such joint model uncertainty reduction. Our approach also enables updating geological model uncertainty without conventional model rebuilding, which significantly reduces the time-consumption. The application to a gas reservoir shows that, this proposed framework can efficiently update the geological model and reduce the prediction uncertainty of the gas storage volume jointly with all model variables.