PROGNOSTIC MODEL OF MINERAL RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE

The work develops a systematic approach to the management of mining, using, export and import non-metallic minerals for construction considering the economic parameters of the development of the world market situation, the domestic market and the resource component of state security. It is proved that it is possible to solve the problem of lean use of minerals by more balanced extraction of minerals, namely, establishing a correlation between extraction and use volumes. To predict the development of the industry, it is suggested to use the author’s multifactorial economic and mathematical model for forecasting the development of complex systems. It is proved that such a model will allow controlling the volumes of mining of technologically related minerals in interdependence on the volumes of their use. An analysis of dynamics and geographic structure of export-import operations was also conducted with natural sand, pebbles, gravel and breakstone. The obtained results allowed us to conclude that the approach to formation of export minerals’ flows is not rational, because it poses a threat to the financial state of the mining industry and the country.