Methods to Assess the Uncertainty of Geological Scenarios in the Exploration Phase of Oil Reservoirs

In early oil exploration stages, the available information is limited, existing high uncertainties related to different geological and petrophysical parameters, for that reason, assessing the uncertainties is highly important to decrease lost of time and money. Because of that, in this paper it was investigated three different techniques to evaluate the probability of different geological scenarios. To do this, it was used the MDS space, in here, different geological geostatistical simulation were studied. All the methodologies were based on Bayes’ rules, being tested different likelihood functions, being the first the inverse-distance interpolation obtaining the weights of each scenario. Also, the second method was the Simple Kriging weights and, the last one was by Gaussian Kernel Density. Finally, the simple kriging weights give not only the most probable geological scenarios, but also how far the scenarios are, being the most recommended. Notwithstanding, all the methodologies were consistent and might be used to asses the uncertainties.