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Abstract

Summary

This study presents an assessment of climate impacts on water availability in the Southern Bug basin, envisaged as a prospective water source for the city of Mykolaiv in Ukraine. Since the city’s primary water supply was disrupted due to Russian armed aggression, it is crucial to explore viable alternative water sources. The region’s semi-arid climate and mounting pressures from climate change necessitate a scientifically informed approach to sustainable water management. The findings of this study, based on the WaterGap hydrological model driven by bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), suggest that under SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios, the Southern Bug basin’s river discharge will undergo notable variations in the future. According to projections, the mean annual discharge could increase by approximately 5–7% in the mid-future. However, the far future could see a decrease in river discharge from 4% to an alarming 14%. Our research also forecasts alterations in the long-term mean monthly discharge. While most seasons and months show a decrease in river discharge, an increase of 5% to over 30% is expected in winter months during the mid-future. From April to June, river discharge levels are expected to remain unchanged for the mid-future under both scenarios. However, a decrease in streamflow of up to 10–12% is projected from July through November. Looking further into the far future, the decrease in water availability could reach up to 40% during the summer and early fall months. These projections underscore the urgent need to adapt water management strategies in the Southern Bug basin to mitigate potential climate change impacts and ensure sustainable water availability for the region.

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/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.2023520085
2023-11-07
2025-01-15
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