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Abstract

Summary

Forecasts of solar activity, proposed by various authors and by various methods, give a very colorful picture, in which amplitude forecasts for the current 25th cycle range from a weak cycle to a strong one. Perhaps the most reliable are the methods of internal harbingers, in which the basic idea is that the “memory” of the solar cycle is relatively short, about 10 years. As part of this approach, the authors used correlation analysis to refine the amplitude of the current cycle, using data from 24 previous cycles. For this purpose, the statistical relationship between the rate of increase in the number of sunspots in the initial phase of the growth curve (up to the 35th month from the beginning of the cycle) and the amplitude of the cycle was considered. We conclude that the maximum of 25th cycle will be, likely, in range 140–170 units and time of cycle peak – in the range November 2024 – January 2025. As for geomagnetic activity, expressed in the Ap index, it occurs, on average, 2 years later. Thus, we can expect that peak of geomagnetic activity in current cycle will be in the end of 2026 - at the beginning of 2027.

EAGE Publications BV © 2023 The Authors © European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers
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/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.2023520241
2023-11-07
2025-01-15

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/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.2023520241
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Clarified Forecast for the 25th Cycle of Solar Activity
Conference Proceedings 2023, 1 (2023); https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.2023520241
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.2023520241
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.2023520241
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