Risk and Uncertainty for Phase Prediction: Bridging the Gap between Petroleum Systems Modelling and Prospect Assessment

In the presented paper, we discuss:

1. The general issues of Petroleum systems modeling
2. The sensitivity of column height and oil versus gas phase on seal and PVT assumptions,
3. The estimation of the chance of success for oil versus gas (COS, or “risk”),
4. The composition of success-case volumes (“resources”),
5. Oil versus gas column heights, and
6. The consistent assessment of prospect versus well COS in the likely presence of two phases.