1887

Abstract

Summary

Assessing uncertainties is a key step in the resource development process, from exploration campaigns to the implementation of mining and rehabilitation strategies. Uncertainties are linked to the partial sampling of the subsurface by data. The interpretation of these data by geologists is subject to a particular type of uncertainty: conceptual uncertainties. The impact of these uncertainties on resource evaluation is known, but under-identified.

We propose here a case study comparing the interpretations of a synthetic cross-section of drillhole data. The idea is to have it interpreted by a set of interpreters (geologists or not, experts or not), to define metrics to quantitatively compare these interpretations, and to quantify conceptual uncertainties. In addition, we aim to identify the role and importance attributed by interpreters to different geological features, in order to suggest improvements to interpretation and modelling workflows.

Results show that interpreters tends to draw highly parsimonious solutions, which can be detrimental for ressources estimations. Also, some interpreters provides very distinct interpretation from the rest of the group, which is essential to capture the range of uncertainties. Complex variable patterns, as non-Gaussian distributions, have also been observed.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.2025101143
2025-06-02
2026-02-15
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. Bond, Gibbs, A., Shipton, Z. and Jones, S. [2007] What Do You Think This Is? “Conceptual Uncertainty” in Geoscience Interpretation. GSA Today, 17(11), 4.
    [Google Scholar]
  2. Chamberlin, T.C. [1890] The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses. Science, New Series, 148(3671), 754–759.
    [Google Scholar]
  3. Cox, T.F. [2001] Multidimensional Scaling Used in Multivariate Statistical Process Control. Journal of Applied Statistics, 28(3–4), 365–378.
    [Google Scholar]
  4. Cuney, M. [2009] Vers une classification génétique des gisements d'uranium. In: Conference: Meeting on Uranium geochemistry and geology, Conference Geochimie et geologie de l'uranium, Orsay (France).
    [Google Scholar]
  5. Dimitrakopoulos, R. [2011] Stochastic Optimization for Strategic Mine Planning: A Decade of Developments. Journal of Mining Science, 47(2), 138–150.
    [Google Scholar]
  6. Emery, X., Ortiz, JM. and Cáceres, AM. [2008] Geostatistical Modelling of Rock Type Domains with Spatially Varying Proportions: Application to a Porphyry Copper Deposit. Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 108(5), 284–292.
    [Google Scholar]
  7. Hinton, G.E. and Roweis, S.T [2002] Stochastic Neighbor Embedding. 15.
    [Google Scholar]
  8. Li, S.X., Knights, P. and Dunn, D. [2008] Geological Uncertainty and Risk: Implications for the Viability of Mining Projects. Journal of Coal Science and Engineering (China), 14(2), 176–180.
    [Google Scholar]
  9. Rankey, E.C. and Mitchell, J.C. [2003] That's Why It's Called Interpretation: Impact of Horizon Uncertainty on Seismic Attribute Analysis. The Leading Edge, 22(9), 820–828.
    [Google Scholar]
  10. Witter, J.B., Trainor-Guitton, W.J. and Siler, D.L. [2019] Uncertainty and Risk Evaluation during the Exploration Stage of Geothermal Development: A Review. Geothermics, 78, 233–242.
    [Google Scholar]
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.2025101143
Loading
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.2025101143
Loading

Data & Media loading...

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error