Induced Seismicity Modelling for Subsurface Operations: The Role of Injection and Production Strategies

Characterisation of induced seismicity is increasing in imprtance given the global drive towards the energy transition and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This study uses the Groningen gas field, Netherlands and the Decatur Field, United States of America, as case studies to test a new Python-based modelling strategy developed by the Geomechanics and Mitigation of Geohazards (GMG) Research Center, a collaboration between universities and Industry partners. The modular and integrated framework, comprising reservoir, mechanical, and seismicity modules, evaluates stress changes due to gas extraction/injecion and forecasts induced seismicity by leveraging detailed reservoir geometry, production history, surface subsidence measurements, and high-quality seismicity data. The subsurface is modeled as a homogeneous isotropic linear poroelastic half-space, with stress changes computed using semi-analytical Green’s functions. Induced seismicity computations are based on the Coulomb Threshold Rate-and-State (TRS) model. The model’s computational efficiency allows for sensitivity testing and robust predictions, making it applicable to various settings. This study underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and advanced modelling techniques to mitigate seismic risks, particularly in the context of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects.