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Sequestration of CO2 in depleted fields and saline aquifers requires containment of CO2 on 1000-year timescales. Prospective storage sites require derisking of potential leakage paths via legacy wells and geological faults. The extent to which faults are permeable depends on a range of parameters including geometry, development history and stress state. Fault permeability is traditionally studied in the context of across-fault permeability through concepts including shale-gouge-ratio and fault transmissibility, often calibrated to dynamic production data.
In the context of containment for CO2 storage, reservoir bounding faults or faults extending into the seal of the reservoir pose a threat as potential leakage pathways for CO2, which is governed by the up-dip, along-strike permeability of faults. This flow direction is controlled in a large part by the fault damage zone geometry and flow properties, for which few models exist and calibration to dynamic data is rare.
Through integration of outcrop-based fault zone geometry characterization and coupled hydro-mechanical damage zone models, we gain new insights into the leakage probability of different fault types in different lithologies. These models are calibrated to observed cases of leaking faults and linked to seismic-scale fault attributes to provide site-specific forecasting capability of leakage risks for CO2 storage.