A Correlation-Based Framework for Minimum Economic Field Size Prediction in Deepwater Exploration:Case Studies from South America

This study proposes a novel correlation-based framework to improve the prediction of Minimum Economic Field Size (MEFS), a critical parameter for assessing exploration risk and economic feasibility in deepwater oil and gas projects. Unlike traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) methods, the framework integrates correlation analysis to estimate key parameters such as production, CAPEX, and OPEX. Using deepwater analog data, the methodology incorporates geological, economic, and fiscal variables to refine MEFS predictions. Case studies from Suriname and Brazil validate its robustness, with MEFS determined to be 145 MMboe and 59–401 MMboe under different scenarios and fiscal regimes. The framework demonstrated adaptability to diverse geologies and fiscal policies while enhancing MEFS accuracy. This approach offers a more practical and efficient solution, with computational complexity and predictive difficulty tailored to meet the demands of production practice.