An Analytical Stress Calculation as Part of a Geothermal Risk Management Toolbox – HEU URGENT Update

The URGENT project seeks to reduced the levelized cost of energy by reducing operational risks linked to thermal breakthrough and induced seismicity by developing innovative technologies and workflows applicable to deep geothermal in urban context. This will be done through improved seismic survey design and acquisition; developing more efficient data analysis and post-processing techniques; managing risk through numerical modelling and simulation; improving social acceptance; and integrating exploration strategies into improved technical workflows. Seismic risk in urban areas is a major factor that hinders the further development of geothermal for heating applications. In this paper, we present the workflow for managing seismic and production risks through numerical modelling -- the Risk Management Toolbox. The toolbox leverages the open-source reservoir simulation software DARTS coupled with a well builder, geomechanics for stress evaluation, and an AI particle swarm algorithm in order to optimize the potential heat production while minimizing the possibility of fault reactivation on nearby faults. Specifically, we present the fast, analytical stress evaluation approach option leveraged in the toolbox for evaluating stress change on known faults in the project area.