Seismic Characterization of the Offshore Eastern Mediterranean Region

This study applies Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) to the offshore eastern Mediterranean region, an area characterized by complex tectonics due to the convergence of the African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. With the rapid growth of offshore infrastructure, accurate seismic hazard evaluation has become increasingly critical. The PSHA methodology, widely used in onshore regions, faces unique challenges offshore, including sparse seismic instrumentation, poorly mapped submarine faults, limited paleoseismic data, and the lack of offshore-specific Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). To address these issues, a comprehensive earthquake catalog was compiled, and two alternative seismotectonic models were developed to reflect the region’s tectonic diversity and associated uncertainties. The models incorporate both area and fault sources, including subduction interfaces of the Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs. A logic tree framework was used to manage epistemic uncertainty throughout the analysis. This study highlights the adaptations required to perform reliable PSHA in offshore environments and emphasized the need for tailored approaches in marine seismic hazard modelling.