1887

Abstract

Summary

We have developed a methodology to assess the risk associated with sediment gravity flows, using numerical simulations of coastal circulation forced by storms to determine the conditions necessary to trigger turbidity currents and to model its evolution downslope. The workflow involves: (1) Hindcast analysis of wind, waves, precipitation, and river discharge. (2) Hydrological modelling of the river basin to determine the sediment delivery. (3) Determination of the return periods of storm events and their quantitative characteristics in terms of wind speed/direction, wave height/period/direction and river discharge. (4) Development of a coastal circulation model, to quantify wave-, current- and tidal-induced currents and the ensuing sediment transport. (5) Determining under which storm conditions turbidity currents are triggered and whether they accelerate into the deep ocean, potentially impacting an infrastructure location. The results of the simulations are analysed statistically, with the aim of estimating the return periods of turbidity currents that can impact an existing or planned infrastructure. Detailed 3D turbidity current simulations are used to estimate the forces impacting the infrastructure, providing information that can assist the detailed design of installation, maintenance and mitigating measures.

Loading

Article metrics loading...

/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202520201
2025-09-07
2026-02-15
Loading full text...

Full text loading...

References

  1. Abecassis, D., Ferreiro, C., Wicken, T., Beteto, A., Kende, M and Gandal, N. [2022] Economic impact of Google's submarine cable network in Latin America and the Caribbean. Analysis Mason Ltd. Report for Google. Downloaded from: https://www.analysysmason.com/consulting/reports/impact-of-google-network-latam-caribbean-2023
    [Google Scholar]
  2. Bolla Pittaluga, M., Frascati, A. and Falivene, O. [2018] A Gradually Varied Approach to Model Turbidity Currents in Submarine Channels, J. Geophys. Res. - Earth Surf., 123, 80–96.
    [Google Scholar]
  3. Bloemendaal, N., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Haigh, I.D. and Aerts, J.C.J.H. [2020] Generation of a global tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM. Sci. Data7, 40.
    [Google Scholar]
  4. Bloemendaal, N., de Moel, H., Martinez, A.B., Muis, S., Haigh, I.D., van der Wiel, K., Haarsma, R.J., Ward, P.J., Roberts, J.M., Dullaart, J.C.M. and Aerts, J.C.J.H. [2022], A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk, Sci. Adv., 8 (17).
    [Google Scholar]
  5. Bueger, C. and Liebetrau, T. [2021] Protecting hidden infrastructure: The security politics of the global submarine data cable network. Contemorary Sec. Pol., 42(3), 391–413.
    [Google Scholar]
  6. Carter, L., Burnett, D., Drew, S., Hagadorn, L., Marle, G., Bertlett-McNeil, D., Irvine, N. [2009] Submarine cables and the oceans — connecting the world. UNEP-WCMC Biodiversity Series31. ICPC/UNEP/UNEP-WCMC
    [Google Scholar]
  7. Necci, A., Girgin, S., Krausmann, E. [2018] Understanding Natech Risk Due to Storms – Analysis, Lessons learned and Recommendations, EUR 29507 EN, European Union, Rept. JRC114176.
    [Google Scholar]
  8. Pope, E.L., Talling, P.J., Carter, L., Clare, M.A. and Hunt, J.E. [2017], Damaging sediment density flows triggered by tropical cyclones, Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 458, 161–169.
    [Google Scholar]
  9. Porcile, G., Bolla Pittaluga, M., Frascati, A. and Sequeiros, O.E. [2020] Typhoon-induced megarips as triggers of turbidity currents offshore tropical river deltas. Commun. Earth Environ1:2, 1–13.
    [Google Scholar]
  10. Smith, A. [2023] A historic year of U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, Annual Report, 2024 (available at: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2023-historic-year-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters)
    [Google Scholar]
  11. Sequeiros, O.E., Bolla Pittaluga, M., Frascati, A., Pirmez, C., Masson, M.G., Weaver, P., Crosby, A.R., Lazzaro, G., Botter, G. and Rimmer, J.G. [2019] How typhoons trigger turbidity currents in submarine canyons, Scientific Reports (Nature Publisher Group), 9, 1–15.
    [Google Scholar]
  12. Paull, C.K., Talling, P.J., Maier, K.L. et al. [2018] Powerful turbidity currents driven by dense basal layers. Nat Commun9, 4114
    [Google Scholar]
  13. Walsh, J.P, Corbett, D.R., Mallinson, D., Goni, M., Dail, M., Loewy, C., Marciniak, K., Ryan, K, Smith, C., Stevens, A., Sumners, B and Tesi, T., 2006, Mississippi Delta mudflow activity and 2005 Gulf Hurricanes, EOS, Transactions Am. Geophys. Union, 87(44), 477–478.
    [Google Scholar]
  14. Zuzak, C., Mowrer, M., Goodenough, E. et al. [2022] The national risk index: establishing a nationwide baseline for natural hazard risk in the US. Nat Hazards114, 2331–2355.
    [Google Scholar]
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202520201
Loading
/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202520201
Loading

Data & Media loading...

This is a required field
Please enter a valid email address
Approval was a Success
Invalid data
An Error Occurred
Approval was partially successful, following selected items could not be processed due to error