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Abstract

Summary

In alignment with France’s and the EU’s green hydrogen strategies under the RED II directive, accurate electricity price forecasting is essential for the design and economic viability of hydrogen storage projects. RED II mandates that green hydrogen be produced using renewable electricity, making cost-effective production highly dependent on electricity price fluctuations.

This study introduces a comprehensive techno-economic framework for hydrogen storage in salt caverns, integrating hourly electricity price forecasts, operational optimization, and geomechanical modeling. DNV’s hybrid forecasting method—combining fundamental market simulations with machine learning—enables precise, scenario-based price predictions.

These forecasts inform the operation of electrolysers and hydrogen storage systems, shaping technical design and financial performance. The study evaluates three operational strategies—daily cycling, seasonal shifting, and spot-market flexibility—each with distinct implications for cavern stress, system sizing, and revenue potential. The result is a robust decision-support tool that aligns market value, regulatory compliance, and long-term system integrity.

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/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.202521146
2025-10-27
2026-01-19
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References

  1. DNV. (2024). POWER ANALYTICS. Retrieved from DNV: https://www.dnv.com/publications/power-analytics/
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  2. Union, E. (2018). Directive (EU) 2018/2001 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 December 2018 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. Official Journal of the European Union.
    [Google Scholar]
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